In a recent post (link here) I said that holding global temperature increases below dangerous levels would require “a mobilization of near-wartime scale and speed to transform the global economy and its energy and transportation systems.” Most climate scientists looking at carbon budgets agree that global greenhouse gas emissions need to fall to near zero in the 2040s (to hold temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius) or 2050s (to hold increases to 2 degrees).
So, how are we doing? BP (formerly British Petroleum) is one of the world’s leading sources for energy statistics and projections. This week’s graph is taken from the 2017 edition of its Energy Outlook. The graph shows BP’s projections of energy use to 2035, based on current trends. The picture is bleak.
BP’s projections show oil use/combustion rising over the next 18 years. Natural gas combustion rises even faster. Even coal combustion increases. Not surprising, BP projects rising GHG emissions for the period from 2017 to 2035. But this is exactly the time frame in which we are supposed to be rapidly reducing emissions.
If BP is correct, if we act in the ways they are predicting, there is zero chance of meeting the Paris commitments of reducing GHG emissions by 30 percent by 2030. And there is zero chance of holding temperature increases below 2 degrees. The picture BP paints, if we allow it to come to pass, would push global temperature increases past 3 degrees, or even higher. That would be a cataclysmic amount of warming.
I’m told that fear and bad news are not good motivators. But neither are delusion or denial. We must stop telling ourselves fanciful stories about salvation by solar shingles. The citizens of the world need to know the facts about our situation and our trajectory. There is a vague feeling that we’re doing the right thing, that solar and wind power are growing so fast that we can meet our targets, that a modest carbon tax levied sometime in the future will be enough to put us onto the right track. No. Projections by BP and others tell a wholly different story. The facts indicate that we are on track to climate calamity. That may not be welcome news, but it is the truth. Whether it motivates people remains to be seen.
Graph source: BP, Energy Outlook: 2017 edition